Sticking With Small Cap and Value for March

There were no changes to Northlake’s models for March. The Market Cap model is sending a small cap signal for the second consecutive month and the Style model remains on value, as it has been since July 2009. As a result of the latest signals, all client positions in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the […]

Virgin Media: Corner Turned, Upside Ahead

Virgin Media reported its best quarter in several years. Mid to upper single digit revenue and EBITDA growth comfortably exceeded estimates and translated to a big beat in free cash flow. Subscriber additions were also good across the board with positive surprises for high speed internet and wireless and wireline telephone. TV subscribers were in […]

Advertising Recovery Accelerating at CBS

CBS reported solid results with EPS, revenue, and EBITDA closely matching street estimates. The report did not provide the big positive surprise seen by News Corporation, with which it has a lot of overlap. This fact, plus some variances to estimates at the segment level, left investors wanting more. There was also some concern that […]

DirecTV: Solid Results and Guidance Reduces Worries on US Competition

DirecTV (DTV) reported solid 4Q09 financial results and mixed subscriber metrics. The company also announced a $3.5 billion share repurchases which exceeded the high end of estimates calling for $2-3 billion. Ahead of the conference call, on which, the company should provide some 2010 guidance commentary, the news is on balance positive and justifies the […]

Quarterly Media Earnings Good But Stocks Trade Lower

The following commentary summarizes recent media company earnings reports including Discovery Communications (DISCA), which remains widely held by Northlake clients. Since I wrote these comments, it was announced that DISCA will be added to the S&P 500. This provided about a 10% pop in the stock price. The past several weeks have witnessed a series […]

Back to Small Caps as Market Cap Model Volatility Continues

Northlake’s Market Cap model continues to show unusual volatility, reflecting the volatile economic and financial market environment. For February the model is sending a small cap signal. As a result, all Northlake model-driven, client positions in mid cap (MDY) have been sold and the proceeds have been reinvested in small cap (IWM). The Style model […]

Searching for Profits in Google

Earlier this week, I purchased a position in Google (GOOG) for all Northlake clients who use individual stocks as part of their portfolio strategy. GOOG pulled back from $630 in early January to $545 with the bulk of the drop occuring following the company’s 4Q09 earnings report. A general correction in tech stocks and the […]

Another Good Quarter Validates Apple Bull Case Despite Confusion

Apple reported another good quarter (revenue +32%, EPS +44%) although investor reaction was unusually muted as the company unexpectedly switched its revenue recognition policy for iPhones. Apple has been reporting “adjusted” results based on the new accounting for several quarters and most investors new a switch was in the pipeline. However the company gave no […]

Virgin Media: Back Long An Old Friend

I purchased a new position in Virgin Media (VMED) in all Northlake client accounts, including my personal accounts. Clients who have been at Northlake for awhile may remember owning Virgin Media previously, even as far back as when it was known as NTL. VMED is the largest cable company in the United Kingdom, with its […]

Sold AT&T Due to Fear of Wireless Price War

All Northlake positions in AT&T have been sold in the last couple of trading days. The stock has been a disappointment. It did not participate in the big market rally in 2009, providing only a minimal return through its dividend yield. Among the many issues that have been troubling the stock are (1) weak enterprise […]