ViacomCBS: Still Too Cheap

Shares of ViacomCBS (VIAC) performed poorly prior to the economic shutdown and COVID-19 crisis and have fallen further.  The stock is now about 50% lower than its mid-February level even after rallying 70% from its March low.  Of all the investments Northlake has owned over the past couple of years, VIAC has performed the worst […]

Disney Worth Waiting For

Few companies are more directly impacted by the economic shutdown related to the COVID-19 crisis than Disney (DIS).  The company’s theme parks are closed.  Movies theaters are shut denying Disney the ability to launch the massive blockbusters from its Marvel, Pixar, Disney, and Star Wars franchises.  Sports are not being played, crippling viewership and ad […]

Less Cyclical Nexstar Sustaining Free Cash Flow

Nexstar Media Group (NXST) shares responded well to the company’s 1Q20 earnings report as investors gained a better understanding of the stability of the company’s free cash flow.  Shares in NXST were pummeled in the initial stages of the COVID-19 crisis despite a much less cyclical financial profile than the company had in Great Financial […]

Apple Fundamentals and Stock Price Fairly Balanced

Apple reported better than expected 2Q20 earnings albeit after the company announced new guidance as COVID disruption closed the company’s stores in China, the U.S. and the rest of the world.  The company did not provide its usual detailed guidance for the quarter ahead but did provide some big picture comments.  iPhones and wearables will […]

Taking Time To Consider Shift to Mid Cap

Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from large cap to a weak mid cap signal for May.  We are using discretion and waiting to make the change in client portfolios given the ongoing market volatility and uncertainty about progress of reopening the economy while containing the pandemic.  Moving to mid cap adds a higher risk, higher […]

A Tale of Three Segments at Comcast

Comcast’s 1Q20 earnings report and conference call exposed sharp differences of how the COVID crisis is impacting the company’s three business segments.  Already positive trends in the core cable business are getting a boost.  NBC Universal and Sky, however, are in the direct path of the virus with little visibility for the pace or timing […]

Facebook Remains a Long-Term Winner

Facebook (FB) reported 1Q20 sales slightly better than recently reduced expectations, and earnings in line with lowered estimates. Sales and earnings estimates fell roughly 6% and 11% respectively throughout March as analysts grappled with quantifying the challenges FB faced from the COVID crisis. Advertisers pulled back sharply in the final three weeks of March, but […]

IBM Cloud is Clearing The Way to Higher Stock Price

Northlake’s investment thesis on IBM centers upon the gradual transition to faster revenue growth as cloud services become a greater part of IBM’s revenue mix. Prior to the COVID crisis, we got an unexpected boost from a CEO transition that elevated the head of company’s cloud efforts.  The economic shutdown clearly will impact IBM as […]

Long Term Intact at Alphabet With Delayed Gratification

Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) reported 1Q20 earnings that indicated better than expected results in January and February before the economic shutdown, offset by a sharp but not quite as bad as expected slowdown in March.  The company commented that advertising trends at Search and YouTube have stabilized in April with signs of green shoots.  Emerging businesses like […]

Large Cap And Growth To Ride Out Storm With Less Risk

Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from mid cap to large cap, primarily reflecting the history of large caps holding up better during bear markets.  The Style model is sticking with growth which makes sense given growth companies are less sensitive to the cyclical impact of recessions. We swapped remaining client positions in mid cap to […]